Gas prices this week: $4.36 national average as oil erases its 'energy ceasefire' dip

On Sunday, October 11, President Trump wrote on Truth Social: "Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine." He added: "Both parties have agreed." The post gave no details and there is no White House document on it. A White House official told Axios that the proposal is "refinery for refinery", meaning each side would stop striking the other's oil refineries. Moscow has not confirmed an agreement, and Ukraine says it supports a ceasefire but is waiting for details, and reported new Russian strikes on its power plants after the post.

The link to fuel prices runs through diesel. Ukrainian drone strikes have taken a large part of Russia's refining capacity offline, and Russian diesel exports fell from about 706,000 barrels a day in January to almost nothing in September, according to Kpler data reported by The National. Two days before the post, on October 9, the Treasury issued General License 135, which authorizes the sale, delivery and importation, "including importation into the United States", of diesel fuel of Russian origin until 12:01 a.m. on April 7, 2027. The President said Russia would supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel immediately, 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons after that. UBS estimated the first batch at about 100,000 barrels a day for the rest of October; S&P Global analysts said the extra Russian cargoes would cover about a tenth of the global diesel export shortfall. We covered the separate diesel tax waiver in our red-dyed diesel guide.

Gasoline is affected only through crude oil, and crude is still dominated by the conflict with Iran that began on February 28. The EIA's latest outlook expects Brent to average about $105 a barrel from October to December. Our Strait of Hormuz tracker follows the flow of oil out of the Gulf.

This year has already shown the pattern. Between May and June, as the U.S. and Iran moved toward their mid-June memorandum, Gulf Coast wholesale gasoline fell 72 cents, from a weekly average of $3.650 in the week to May 1 to $2.933 in the week to June 19. The national pump average fell almost exactly as much, 72 cents, from $4.500 on May 11 to $3.777 on July 6. It took eight weeks, and the pump bottomed out more than two weeks after wholesale did.

Why it is slow on the way down. Stations buy fuel by the truckload and price it against what they paid, and when wholesale falls they usually rebuild their margin before they cut. That margin is thin right now. The gap between the national pump price and the previous week's Gulf Coast wholesale price, which has to pay for taxes, transport to other regions and the station, was 68 cents on October 5 and 52 cents on September 28. Its average from 2015 to 2025 was 95 cents, and when wholesale fell in early June it widened to $1.16. A gap that low usually means part of the next wholesale drop stays with the station.

What that means now. Wholesale gasoline on the Gulf Coast averaged $3.672 in the week to October 2, down 27 cents from the week before, and was about $3.54 on October 5 and 6. Had it stayed there, the pattern above points to a national average around $4.15 by early November, close to the EIA's forecast of $4.15 for the fourth quarter. That is a projection from past behavior, not a forecast of ours, and it depends on oil not going back up. Since October 6, it has: crude rose with Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf of Mexico and the attacks in Saudi Arabia, and AAA's daily average has almost stopped falling.

Cheapest: Georgia ($3.81), Texas ($3.82) and Ohio ($3.87) lead AAA's list, with Indiana, North Carolina, Mississippi, Tennessee and Louisiana all below $3.94. On the EIA's weekly figures, the Gulf Coast is the cheapest region at $3.911. Most expensive: California at $6.31, then Hawaii, Washington and Nevada above $5.40. The West Coast was the only region where the EIA average rose last week.

The Midwest jumps are price cycling, not oil. Michigan rose 20 cents in a week and Indiana almost 17, while wholesale prices were lower. Stations in several Great Lakes states raise prices all at once and then let them drift down for days, so weekly changes there swing both ways. Over a month, Michigan is up 34 cents and Ohio down 30. Check the Midwest page and Chicago for the EIA's weekly figures.

North Carolina's tax holiday. Governor Josh Stein signed the Relief at the Pump Act on October 9, suspending the state's 41-cent tax on gasoline and diesel from October 10 through November 30, according to NC Newsline and WUNC. The 18.4-cent federal gas tax still applies. AAA's North Carolina average fell 11.4 cents in a week, to $3.91. Legislative leaders expect drivers to see closer to 30 cents than 41, and the law lets stations recover tax already paid on fuel in their tanks, so the full drop takes time. Our gas tax by state table shows each state's regular rate.